The internet seems to be tired of waiting for the great Roger Deakins to win an Oscar. He has been nominated 10 times, for lensing such films as No Country for Old Men, True Grit and The Shawshank Redemption. This year, he's nominated for his work in Skyfall. The beautifully shot sequences in that movie, such as the Shanghai and Macau sections, had a lot of people eager to say this was finally going to be Deakins' year. I personally think the cinematography in Skyfall is a little inconsistent. Sure, some scenes are beautiful, but many others are visually bland. Still, I would celebrate a win for Deakins gladly, since there is no doubt he is one of the best living DPs and is deserving of recognition for his work.
Which is a long introduction to say that I don't think he'll win. I do think he is a possibility, but looking at the recent winners in this category, Claudio Miranda's lensing of Life of Pi seems like more than an obvious choice for the win. The visuals in the movie are outstanding and you can rest asure that the Academy won't mind that a lot of the movie's look was achieved using computer effects. Life of Pi will probably join Avatar and Hugo in the recent streak of effects-heavy 3D winners in this category.
If I were an Academy member, though, I wouldn't hesitate before giving my vote to Seamus McGarvey's Anna Karenina. I think it was the great Katey Rich that said the way the camera moves in that movie is unreal. And she is right.
Will Win: Life of Pi
Should Win: Anna Karenina