Again, we all know the front-runner for Best Picture is Argo, and that the Academy likes to give a certain number of awards to their Best Picture winners. If Argo won less than three awards on sunday night, it would be the first movie to do so since... I think since the 1930s. That is, at the end of the day, why I am picking it to win Adapted Screenplay. Not to say that it is an undeserving winner, the script by Chris Terrio is a very well crafted thriller, a true hollywood winner, but there is some tough competition.
Tony Kushner wrote an incredible screenplay for Steven Spielberg's Lincoln, one that until the sudden tidal wave of Argo love, would have been a shoo-in for the win. Kushner is one of the greatest living writers and that shows in the movie, which despite the fact of being bookended by some pretty disappointing scenes, is perhaps the best written piece of cinema this year. On the other hand we have David O. Russell, whose Silver Linings Playbook seems to be getting lots of love around Hollywood and has the Weinstein awards-machine behind its campaign. A win by any of these two wouldn't surprise me (what would be surprising would be a win by either the beautiful script for Beasts of the Southern Wild or the problematic script for Life of Pi). At the end of the day the classical adventure plotting of Argo and John Goodman and Alan Arkin's quips about hollywood should put it over the edge.
Will Win: Argo
Should Win: Lincoln