There seems to be little suspense surrounding the question of who will win the Oscar for Best Picture. Ben Affleck's Argo has been a steamroller collecting awards everywhere it's been. If it wins, it will be the first movie since Driving Miss Daisy to win the Oscar without a Best Director nomination. If it loses, then it will be the first movie to do so after winning so many freaking awards. It's won even more "key" awards than Brokeback Mountain did before it shamefully lost to Crash back in '06. So either way, it will make history.
It could also make history beyond the stat books. Ever since the Academy expanded the Best Picture category to 10 nominees (and later to an non-definitive crazy number), I've been waiting to see if ever a film without a Best Director nomination would win. If Argo pulls this off, then it will affect the way studios look at their Oscar chances. Suddenly, not getting a Director nod won't be an impediment for studio campaigning for the prize. Maybe this way the conversation during these months won't be limited to just a couple films. Or maybe the Academy will go back to having only five nominees next year.
Anyway, here's the complete list of what I'm predicting to win at this year's Academy Awards. Am I being too generous towards Life of Pi? Not giving enough love to Lincoln? Underestimating Silver Linings Playbook and overestimating Django? It's only two days until we find out!
Director: Ang Lee - Life of Pi
Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained
Adapted Screenplay: Chris Terrio - Argo
Lead Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Lead Actress: Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway - Les Misérables
Animated Film: Wreck-It-Ralph
Foreign Film: Amour
Documentary: Searching for Sugar Man
Cinematography: Claudio Miranda - Life of Pi
Production Design: Sarah Greenwood - Anna Karenina
Costume Design: Jacqueline Durran - Anna Karenina
Film Editing: William Goldenberg - Argo
Original Score: Mychael Danna - Life of Pi
Original Song: Adele - Skyfall
Sound Mixing: Les Misérables
Sound Editing: Life of Pi
Makeup and Hair: Les Misérables
Visual Effects: Life of Pi