As an awards nut; and ever since AMPAS announced last year that the Bes Picture category would now have anywhere from five to ten nominees, predicting the nominees for the Academy Awards' top prize has become one big headache. Not only must one guess which films are popular enough to make it to the top short list, but also how many. I am convinced that not once for however long this rule exists, will I predict exactly what and how many films will be nominated in this category. But it's still fun to try.
I'd say we will at least have six nominees. Lincoln is a huge commercial and critical hit. The same can be said of Ben Affleck's Argo. And the constant apparition of Zero Dark Thirty amongst mayor awards group make them the top three contenders.
After earning big BAFTA (the british equivalent of the Oscars) nominations for Best Picture and Director, Life of Pi has become a front-runner as well (Just to put this into perspective, Steven Spielberg was snubbed in the BAFTA best director category).
Also translating smoothly into a Best Picture nomination despite the recent critical backlash is Tom Hooper's Les Misérables which just a couple days ago seemed like it could be a shocking omission. Now the film that seems to be fading instead of Les Mis is Silver Linings Playbook, but I think it is still as popular as to get into the field without mayor trouble.
Those are the six I'm confident will be nominated. There's still room for four more movies at the most, but I just don't know if any of those films have enough support. Quentin Tarantino's Django Unchained seems pretty likely, but I don't know if it will play as well with the Academy as many of the internet fanboys are expecting. The same can be said of Skyfall, which suffered a mayor blow when it was snubbed at BAFTA's Best Picture list. And as much as I would love to see Amour or Beasts of the Southern Wild get in, something tells me they probably won't get in.
Now, we needn't look further than last year to see how many films that we presumed dead came back to earn nominations in this category (The Tree of Life, War Horse, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close), but for now, I think we will only have six nominees this year.
Who Will Be Nominated? Argo, Les Misérables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty
Who Should Be Nominated? Well, my Top Ten of 2012 is coming up, so stay tuned for that!