Award Shows, my one weakness. Even if they're meaningless, I can't resist them and so, here is my annual attempt at predicting which actors and shows will become winners. These are predictions for the 64th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards which will be broadcast live on Sunday September 23 on ABC.
To win the Emmy, every actor nominated must submit an episode representative of their best work each season. The episodes submitted are then viewed by a panel that votes for what they deem best. Each actor and his/her publicity team pick which episode to submit. Great submissions can help an underdog, bad ones could prevent a favorite from winning. Let's take a look at what these guys chose. The nominees are...
Ty Burrell in "Modern Family" (ABC)
He won this category last year and is back to take home his second Emmy. Burrell's Phil has become the breakout character of the show with his portrayal of a heartwarming doofus. Because there are an excessive amount of 'Modern Family' actors nominated and Phil has kind of become the de facto lead of that show, voters will see a lot of him when they watch these tapes.
Episode Submission: "Lifetime Supply"
That's not to mention the fact that his episode submission is a pretty solid one. In "Lifetime Supply" Phil confronts his apparent death in a pretty funny manner that will not only please voters, but will also bring contrast to the happier and more out-going work he does in his co-star's episodes.
Jesse Tyler Ferguson in "Modern Family" (ABC)
He may be the least buzzed-about of the Modern Family adult cast, but he may just be the guy to take on Burrell and win the Emmy. He has the disadvantage of regularly playing straight man Mitchell to Eric Stonestreet's more flamboyant Cameron. The Emmys prefer to give the awards to the crazier characters, but "straight-man" roles have won in the past, including Ferguson's co-star Julie Bowen last year.
Episode Submission: "Leap Day"
In this tape Mitchell tries to organize the perfect birthday party for Cam as hijinks ensue. It is a fine submission and a funny enough one, but what could seal the deal is his emotional breakdown in Ed O'Neill's episode. If he has something going against him, it may be that he hasn't all that great material in either Burrell or Stonestreet's tapes.
Ed O'Neill in "Modern Family" (ABC)
Considering he is a sitcom veteran in the biggest comedy on television, he should already have won an Emmy. The thing that is keeping it from happening is that his character isn't as obviously comedic as the others. Like Ferguson, he most of the time has to play the straight-man to television wife Sofia Vergara.
Episode Submission: "Baby on Board"
The other thing keeping him from winning, judging from this submission, is that he is terrible at this. In this episode, he has a conversation with his grand-daughter and then dances for two seconds with her. That's it. His story is actually the C-Plot of the episode. Talking about it, the A-Plot of Cam and Mitchell going to a bordertown to adopt a baby might snatch the gold for either of them.
Eric Stonestreet in "Modern Family" (ABC)
Oh, poor Cameron. Back in season one he was the absolute stand-out in this great cast, but two seasons later the writers have turned the character into a shrill wining machine.
Episode Submission: "Treehouse"
Stonestreet, however, is a good actor who knows how to work the good stuff when it's given to him and this is episode is an example of that. In "Treehouse" Cameron pretends to be straight in order to prove to Mitchell he could pick up a woman if he wanted to. It's pretty funny and the adoption storyline in Ed O'Neill's tape will help him too.
Max Greenfield in "New Girl" (FOX)
'New Girl' was a show that got much better as it went along and stopped being the "adorkable" Zooey Deschanel show in order to become more of an ensemble comedy. In this transition, Max Greenfield's lovable douche Schmidt became the beakout star of the show.
Episode Submission: "Control"
Greenfield's choie is actually a pretty good one, in "Control" we get to see Schmidt turn from an uptight control-freak to a carefree hippie drummer. Showing two sides of a character in a tape is an old trick for striking Emmy gold and voters do tend to fall for it. However, he might be too young and there might just be too many 'Modern Family' actors for him to win.
Bill Hader in "Saturday Night Live" (NBC)
When I first wrote about Bill Hader's nomination, I was a little surprised and really couldn't make up why he was on the list. I hadn't been watching much of SNL this season and therefore didn't know about his popular performance as "Stefon" which is actually really funny.
Episode Submission: "Host: Katy Perry"
Anyway, no SNL cast member has won since the rules were weirdly changed so they could get nominated int he supporting categories. No matter how popular Stefon is, if Amy Poehler and Kristen Wiig couldn't win, Hader probably won't.
Who Will Win? I'm going with Ty Burrell, but I think it could end up being Jesse Tyler Ferguson or Eric Stonestreet.
Who Should Win? My favorite supporting actors aren't nominated (Nick Offerman, Donald Glover, Danny Pudi, Chris Pratt), but if I had to choose from this list, I'd probably go with Greenfield.